Weather Blog: Severe storm potential Sunday evening

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Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff Breaks Down the Latest Timing and Threats

Latest Severe Weather Risk from the Storm Prediction Center (Updated at 11:30 AM CDT)

There’s a low end (Marginal) threat for severe thunderstorms later on this Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.

A cold front is on the move to the southeast from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma this Sunday afternoon, September 22. This cold front will interact with temperatures in the 80s, dew points near 70 across the area and strong upper-level winds from a jet stream dipping south into the area.

Surface Map At Noon Showing a Strong Cold Front Moving In

All of these ingredients will combine later today leading to the development of thunderstorms this evening. The most likely timing for these storms will be from 5 p.m. until a little after 10 p.m.

Latest HRRR Computer Model with Future Composite Radar

There is enough wind shear in the atmosphere where a few of the stronger storms could rotate, therefore the tornado threat is low BUT NOT zero. The main threat will be damaging winds from any stronger isolated storms. Storms could be a little stronger in the River Valley, due to a little warmer temperatures and a bit more instability.

Latest SPC Individual Threats

We’ll be watching radar closely, so keep it here with your Weather Authority team for the latest severe weather information.

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