A fall-like cold front will move in Sunday evening/night and interact with high humidity giving us severe storm chances. All modes of severe weather are possible with the main hazards being damaging winds and flash flooding. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. The front will move north to south with the best chance of severe weather being in our northern counties. Here is a look a the current Day 1 risk.
The timing of the storms is a bit tricky with the atmospheric flow being west to east along the west to east positioned front. This set-up will cause the front to move slowly through our area. Here is the latest timing.
The heightened risk of flash flooding is worth noting. The moisture content in the atmosphere is very high. We have precipitable water values in the 2″ + range for parts of Northwest Arkansas. The slow moving nature of the front will allow for potential training thunderstorms. Those factors combined with the fact that some areas in Northwest Arkansas saw heavy rain this morning will make flash flooding a notable concern. Here is the latest Excessive Rainfall Forecast.
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