Weather Blog: Heavy Rain and Severe Storm Chances Increasing for Today and Friday

Posted: Mar 23, 2023 / 10:37 AM CDT

Updated: Mar 23, 2023 / 10:50 AM CDT

Heavy rain with severe storm chances are increasing for today and Friday. A powerful storm system west of our area will move in today and interact with a nearly stationary frontal boundary near our area. This looks to give us multiple rounds of heavy rain which could lead to flash flooding. Rainfall totals in the 2″ – 4″ range look possible in the Thursday through Friday time-frame. Strong to severe storms will also be possible during this time.

Here is what you can expect. Rain and storm chances will move in this afternoon as energy aloft moves into an environment rich with moisture. The heavy rain potential in Northwest Arkansas will increase this evening as a frontal boundary begins to move south into our area. The position of the front is in question. The main precipitation axis will be along the front. It may stay north of our area, however it may make its way into Northwest Arkansas. Severe weather will be possible during the afternoon and evening today with the main hazard being large hail. There is also a low end tornado threat. Chances of rain and storms will increase tonight into Friday morning as the front looks to start moving south along with the main piece of energy with this system moving in from the west. The whole area but especially the River Valley will see heavy rain and severe storm chances increase during the Friday morning time-frame. Large hail will again be the main concern with isolated tornadoes being possible. This is the time when the flash flood potential is the highest. The rain could be heavy at times during the commute home Thursday and especially during the commute to work Friday. That being said always remember the phrase, turn around and don’t drown.

The main concern with this storm system looks to be the flood potential. Flood prone areas such as river valleys, creeks, streams, and other low lying areas should be watched. The Poteau River Basin, the Elk River in Mcdonald County, and the Illinois River in Adair County and Delaware County are big concerns for flooding with this system. Here is the latest Excessive Rainfall Forecasts.