New UAMS COVID-19 modeling shows increase in cases to come

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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA) — Arkansas could see as many confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths in the next two weeks as we did in the first three months of the pandemic.

According to the latest COVID-19 modeling from the UAMS College of Public Health, the 15-day forecast shows by November 30, we’re likely to have 136,263 confirmed COVID-19 cases.

That is an increase of 16,336, which is more than reported between March 11 and June 21.

It is also projecting our confirmed deaths will rise to 2,477 in the next two weeks.

One of the biggest takeaways of these projections is that COVID-19 has entered a phase of community spread in Arkansas, according to Dr. Mark Williams, the dean of the College of Public Health at UAMS.

“COVID-19 in Arkansas has entered a phase of community spread,” he said. “What this means is the virus is so prevalent of widespread within a community, people will not know where or from whom they’ve come into contact with the virus. The result of infections in many cases will be tragic.”

When looking at the long-term projection of active infections the most recent UAMS modeling shows the peak of the epidemic in Arkansas will be in late March or early April with an average of 32,436 active infections on April 4.

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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