Weather Blog: Drizzle and Rain Today, Winter Weather Update


The main concern is the evolving freezing drizzle concerns through tomorrow morning, with a secondary focus on the accumulating snow potential this weekend.

Drizzle is expanding across portions of eastern Oklahoma, especially along and north of I-40 ahead, per surface observations and radar trends. The expansion is occurring generally along and north of the existing cold front, which stretches from roughly Okemah northeastward to far northwestern
portions of Benton County.

Osage and Pawnee counties are the only locations at present in the freezing air so much of the light
precipitation remains as liquid drizzle. The primary forecast problem today is how quickly other portions of the forecast area fall below freezing, leading to a transition to freezing drizzle
and associated icing potential.

Much of the area northwest of I-44 should see freezing drizzle begin this morning, with the freezing line reaching areas north of an Okemah to Grove line by late afternoon/early evening. Portions of southeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas should see freezing drizzle beginning tonight.

The Winter Weather Advisory will be expanded southward this morning to an Okfuskee to Delaware County line, with moderate confidence that the day shift will need to expand it further, including into northwest Arkansas.

The bulk of the precipitation should end by late morning Thursday, with a dry afternoon expected.

Warmer, near normal temperatures are expected for Friday with southerly winds making a quick return ahead of the next, stronger front slated to move through early in the weekend. The GFS has jumped on board with the consistent ECMWF solution showing an increased chance for along frontal precipitation Friday night and into Saturday, which will fall as liquid.

Better precipitation chances arrive late Saturday night and into Sunday as another disturbance moves through the Central Plains. Cold air behind the Friday night/Saturday front looks to be deep enough for largely snow to fall across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

Still a lot of uncertainty with this upcoming event, including with the eastward extent of the accumulating snow.

A strong northerly trajectory aloft will keep well below normal temperatures over the area from the latter part of the weekend well into next week. However, recent model trends indicate a drier beginning to the work week than at this same time yesterday.

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