Weather Blog: Looking Ahead to Potential Severe Storms

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We`ll see a quick warmup this morning, with south winds increasing and becoming gusty.

Fire weather danger will be on the rise this afternoon as relative humidity values dip to around 35-45 percent. Recent rainfall will temper the fire danger some, with the poorest conditions expected across portions of Pawnee, Osage and Washington counties where rainfall was generally less than a half inch.

Low-level moisture will be on the increase Tuesday and especially into Wednesday as gusty south winds persist ahead of a strong upper low.

By Wednesday afternoon, expect a cold front to be draped across Kansas to a surface low across the Texas panhandle, with a dryline extending south from the low. Capping will likely keep convection at a minimum for much of the day, with chances increasing by late afternoon and especially into the evening as forcing increases along the eastward advancing cold front/dry line.

Forecast shear/instability will be sufficient for some severe weather, with the best chances shaping up across southeast Oklahoma.

Showers/thunderstorms will sweep east of the area by Thursday morning, with some wrap around showers possible the remainder of the day.

Temperatures Thursday/Friday should be a touch below normal, with readings returning to near or above normal for next weekend.
 

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