Weather Blog: Mild Today, Rain Chances Later On


Low clouds have returned overnight, along with rising temperatures.

The exception is within the River Valley, with Fort Smith remaining in east/northeast flow and temperatures in the low 40s. The surface cold front is located in central Kansas this morning, extending roughly from great bend to the ok panhandle.

The global models are consistent on bringing the cold front through northeast Oklahoma by early to mid-afternoon, keeping southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the warm air the longest.

Areas of drizzle or light showers may develop this morning, and then as frontal forcing arrives later, rain may become more widespread across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. Latest forecast data indicate the cold air will lag behind the stronger forcing and the more widespread precipitation. Much of the heaviest precipitation will fall as rain through early evening. There will be a chance for wintry precipitation across portions of northeast and east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight.

The most likely precipitation types are freezing rain/sleet, as there isn`t a saturated dendritic layer for snow. Some freezing drizzle is possible as well, particularly given dry air in the mid levels noted on forecast soundings. Only light accumulations are expected, but slippery spots could develop on area roads tonight.

Wind chill values will fall into the single digits and teens by Wednesday morning with the gusty northwest winds, temperatures won`t recover much on Wednesday with highs only in the 30s and 40s.

Below normal temperatures will continue for the next several days, although it should stay dry. The upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough with periodic reinforcing surges of cold air through at least the early part of next week.

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