The weak upper-level low, best defined at high levels, over Northwest Oklahoma will continue to drift northwest away from the area.
Scattered diurnal convection will occur again today, likely in about the same pattern as yesterday, within the hot and humid airmass left in the wake of the upper low.
The diurnal activity is likely to shift south some on Wednesday as the mid/upper-level high over Southeast Wyoming last evening builds towards Missouri and results in rising heights in the north part of our forecast area.
This should also bump temperatures up a few degrees on Wednesday as well.
With the mid/upper-level high centered over Missouri on Thursday evening, the best chance for scattered showers and storms will be over Southeast Oklahoma into West-Central Arkansas.
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should stay about the same as Wednesday, but then begin to warm a few degrees Saturday through Monday as the high aloft shifts into the Southeastern U.S. And bridges westward across the region to a developing high aloft over the great basin and West-Central Rockies.
Diurnal thunderstorm chances look like they will be confined to the terrain areas of Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas and Friday and Saturday.
Storm chance appears low right now for the entire area on Sunday with the ridge aloft directly overhead.
There are decent signals in the computer models that a front will approach the area Tuesday.
What is not clear is if the front will pass or get hung near or north of the area.