Weather Blog: Possibility for Thunderstorms on Tuesday


Regional mesoanalysis shows the axis of instability from Central Arkansas into Western Kansas early this morning. 

Isolated convection has begun to develop within this axis generally along and south of I-40 in Eastern Oklahoma and back into Northeast Oklahoma.  

Storms will again be possible today just about anywhere but will need to keep a close eye on a complex of storms moving through Northwest Kansas at present. 

Some cam solutions including the operational HRRR for the past few runs indicate this complex could hold together and follow moist axis into Northeast Oklahoma later today. 

This also lends uncertainty to temperature forecast, though expect any locations that see a lesser impact from convection to be at or above heat advisory criteria at least briefly this afternoon. 

For now, have left configuration of heat advisory intact as confidence too low at this point to add or remove any counties.

Northwest flow aloft will keep thunderstorm chances continuing through Wednesday before the upper ridge expands with moist unstable axis likely shifting northeast of the area. 

Thursday and Friday right now appear to be the hottest days with some operational model guidance indicating temperatures well in excess of 100 degrees over much of Eastern Oklahoma.

Additional heat headlines will no doubt be needed through this time frame, potentially close to heat warning in some areas depending on how dew points ultimately trend. 

Still uncertain as to how long the heat wave will last as a weak front may push through by the weekend. 

In all likelihood, temps will remain above normal into early next week with little chance of precipitation.

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