Areas of low clouds across western AR will clear this morning as the long wave trof exits to our east, with mostly sunny skies expected today.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal today into Saturday, with slightly cooler weather for Sunday as a dry cold front passes through.
The mild weather will persist for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, as a southerly flow develops across the southern Plains. A few light showers look possible for Christmas Day as low-level moisture gradually improves.
A strong upper low is forecast to drop into the southwestern states early next week, with rain chances ramping up by mid-week as the system nears. Models have trended a bit slower and farther south with the upper low track, with deep-layered southerly flow transporting abundant moisture into the region.
The best chances of rain and a few thunderstorms seem to be shaping up for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and perhaps into early Thursday before the upper system ejects farther east.
Thermal fields/forecast soundings support all liquid at this time, and we`ll continue to closely monitor the evolution of this system over the next several days.