An ongoing cluster of storms extending from northeastern Kansas into southeast Kansas and western Missouri has become prominent.
Given recent radar trends and the orientation of propagation vectors roughly parallel with the steering winds for this storm cluster, repeated thunderstorms tracking over the same locations will likely lead to heavy rainfall and a flash flooding potential through the morning hours.
Also, precipitable water amounts of over 2 inches would further support efficient rainfall rates and heavy rainfall potential.
This cluster of storms is expected to dissipate by the late morning hours to early afternoon hours today due to loss of instability and a weakening low-level jet.
However, a slowly retrograding upper-level ridge pattern to our west with recurring short wave troughs along its northeastern periphery will set up a similar storm cluster pattern diving south each night from tonight through Saturday morning into portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact locations the storm clusters track through each night, as that will primarily be driven by mesoscale factors.