Main forecast concerns this morning are the potential for locally heavy rainfall both today, primarily across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas, and also over the weekend in parts of northeast Oklahoma and perhaps, far northwest Arkansas.
Early this morning, moisture continues to increase as the remnants of Imelda approach the region. Ongoing low clouds and shower and thunderstorm activity across north texas and into far southeast Oklahoma will expand northward during the day and then tapering from southwest to northeast tonight.
Precipitable water values are expected to climb to levels in excess of two inches across much of the area, which seems reasonable. Higher rainfall rates should result in the stronger storms.
A more persistent southwesterly flow aloft will move over the region, leading to a fairly active weather pattern through the weekend and into early next week. High moisture values will remain through the weekend, setting the stage for additional heavy rain potential, especially Saturday night and into Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the north.