Upper trough, currently over the four corners region, will shift into the central/southern plains today.
In response, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy rain will spread across a large portion of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today and tonight. There is a chance that precipitation could transition to a wintry mix over far northeast Oklahoma tonight closer to the main upper low.
In addition, higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas could see a period of light freezing rain overnight into Saturday morning as temperatures hover in the lower 30s.
Main impact overall will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Widespread 1 to 2-inch totals is expected across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with locally higher amounts.
Given the already saturated soil conditions, some low lying areas could experience some minor flooding.
River flooding may become a concern, mainly along the Grand-Neosho at Commerce and in the Illinois River Basin. The system will begin to shift northeast of the region on Saturday with the potential for some lingering light drizzle Saturday afternoon/evening.
Behind the departing system, cold/breezy conditions will persist on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s. The surface high will build into the area by Monday morning before shifting east with warmer weather on Tuesday.
Another cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Wednesday into Wednesday night keeping temperatures near normal for the remainder of the work week.