A slow-moving cutoff low was over northern Mexico early this morning, and this feature will gradually move east into the Arklatex region by Thursday.
A surface frontal boundary extends from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into the northwest corner of Arkansas and will continue to see at least scattered convection near the frontal zone, with a substantial drop off in the vicinity of I-44 with dry conditions to the north.
Will likely see an increase in coverage later tonight into Thursday morning as the low ejects northeast, with precipitable water values supporting at least a localized heavy rainfall threat across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
The threat of severe weather remains very low.
Once the low departs, precip will shift east during the day Thursday with temperatures warming up across eastern Oklahoma. Another weak frontal boundary will pass through Thursday afternoon with cool conditions expected Thursday night.
Dry and warm conditions will prevail Friday under weak shortwave ridging with south winds increasing during the afternoon. Current indications are that thunderstorms will develop over the high plains to our northwest Friday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through in west to northwest flow, and warm advection regime may help sustain this convection across northern sections of the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning.