Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front in the general vicinity of I-44 corresponding with the axis of relatively high dew points in the lower 60s.
In the upper levels, a cutoff low was centered just north of the Gulf of California, with a lead impulse in southwest flow aloft lifting across west Texas. This feature will continue to move northeast and likely cause an expansion of elevated convection to the north of the front later this morning into northeast Oklahoma, and possibly far northwest Arkansas.
While heaviest rainfall axis should remain concentrated more toward southwest Oklahoma, some locally heavy amounts could fall over parts of northeast Oklahoma into this afternoon. The front will make little progress south today with clouds/precip keeping temperatures rather cool north of the boundary.
The overall trend for the next couple of days will see the front gradually sag southward while the upper low slowly moves east across Texas through Thursday. This will place the focus for heavier rain potential more into southeast Oklahoma with time, with the possibility of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from tonight through early Thursday.
The overall severe weather potential in this pattern will remain on the low side.
The upper low will eventually move east into the southeast U.S. by Thursday night with a shortwave ridge over the southern plains Friday resulting in dry weather.