Weather Blog: Severe Storm Chances for Today

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Morning surface analysis shows warm front across Southeast Oklahoma into Central Arkansas.

Surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s south of the boundary and stratus is rapidly moving north-northwest per latest satellite animations.

Dense fog has developed across far Northwest Arkansas into Northeast Oklahoma roughly along and north of the I-44 corridor. A dense fog advisory has been issued through mid-morning for these areas.

Regarding severe potential this afternoon and evening: Global models have been fairly consistent in showing two areas for storm development. The first area will be across far Southeast Oklahoma/Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas. Surface instability will be maximized in this region, and assuming surface convergence is sufficient, a few storms may develop by late afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear will be at least 50-60 kt, supporting supercells with all severe hazards across Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas. Latest high-resolution models suggest this initial convection could develop between 4-6 pm.

The second area of storms will form along the main trough axis, roughly along and east of the i-35 corridor between 5-7 pm. These storms will affect areas in Eastern Oklahoma, including the Tulsa
and McAlester areas, during the early to mid evening hours.

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible, with the highest threat for tornadoes and large hail across Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.

Rain will end quickly by saturday morning as the system moves east of the area. Temperatures on Saturday won`t be too chilly, but another cold surge arrives by Sunday night into Monday, with a chance for a rain/snow mix across portions of the area.

Below normal temperatures are then expected for the rest of the work week, with highs only in the 40s and lows in the 20s. It will stay dry, however, until late in the week.

There is a potential for more wintry precipitation Friday into Saturday and this could be more significant.

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