Weather Blog: Severe Weather Likely for Saturday Afternoon/Evening

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UPDATED AT 1 PM WITH LATEST DAY 2 RISK BELOW: We are continually monitoring a large weather system that will be moving into the Northwest Arkansas/River Valley area this Saturday. This system is STRONG and will need to be watched closely. While the exact details with the threats and timing aren’t certain at this point, it does appear severe storms will be rather likely during the afternoon into the evening on Saturday. With all the outdoor plans and activites to start the weekend, you will need to be WEATHER READY in case threatening storms move into the area.

Below is a look at cities included in the ENHANCED RISK (Level 3 out of 5) for Saturday.

BELOW: 12:30 PM UPDATE with latest Day 2 Risk and Probabilities below. Not much change except an expansion of the risk farther west and east for the ENHANCED RISK area.

Below is a look at the timing from a high-resolution computer model (HRRR Extended).  Notice the storms look to remain to the SW during the morning hours, so outdoor activities should be okay, but a stray shower or storm will still be possible.

By 10 a.m. the storms get a little closer to the area moving into NE Oklahoma.

Storms will be moving into the area by lunchtime on Sat bringing the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Due to the strong wind shear along with increasing instability, rotating storms with a few tornadoes will also be possible, especially if storms remain isolated.

By 2 p.m. storms continue to push east, but moderate to heavy rain with gusty winds and lightning will be rather likely.

By 4 p.m. the rain will be starting to move out of the area, but additional storm development will be possible moving in from E Oklahoma. (Computer model only goes out to 4 PM at the time of this post)

Keep in mind, the HRRR model above may not be exact with depiction of the future radar, so this timing can vary. If it does come true… widespread storms will bring an impact to outdoor plans and activities. On top of the storm activity, heavy rain totals of 1 to 2.5 inches could also lead to flash flooding.

Oh… did I mention an even bigger system comes in on Tuesday next week?!? Obviously, this system is a long ways out and exact details on threats and timing are uncertain at this point. It appears another Weather Ready Day could be likely Tuesday and this time it could be late morning into the early afternoon during work/school.

We’ll have more updates, so keep it here with your Weather Authority Team for the latest severe weather information.  –Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff

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