The surface boundary has lifted back to the north and northwest overnight, with the focus for most shower and storm activity currently extending from north-central Oklahoma to the southwest.
Rain and thunderstorms will become more widespread across northeast Oklahoma today as the cold front slowly moves back into the area. This will set the stage for the threat for heavy rainfall, flash flooding and river flooding across much of the forecast area today and tonight.
Model QPF signals suggest the heavy rain axis that initially sets up across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today will shift to the south later this afternoon and tonight.
Therefore, the flash flood watch has been expanded and encompasses all of CWA except Choctaw County. The noon Wednesday expiration time will be left as is.
Widespread 2 to 4 inch amounts are likely, with local amounts approaching 6 to 7 inches are possible through tonight.
Additionally, the strongest storms that are ahead of the boundary in the warm sector will carry a severe potential where all modes of severe will be possible- especially northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
The severe threat will also shift east and southeast during the evening and overnight period.