Weather Blog: Shower Chances Return

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Shortwave trough centered just west of El Paso this morning will continue to move east with resultant area of lift spreading into eastern Oklahoma later today.

More substantial moisture will remain tied closer to the remnants of Hurricane Willa which will track across far south Texas and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico, while layer of dry air entrenched over our region will be slow to erode through today. Light rain developing over parts of eastern Oklahoma tonight. Once lower levels become closer to saturated late today,odds of measurable rain increase substantially this evening and overnight as the trough axis moves through. Rainfall amounts however should remain light with possible exception of some areas close to the Red River.

This system will move east of the area Thursday with clouds lingering much of the day and possibly well into Friday.

Northwest flow aloft will bring some shortwave energy this weekend, with a more robust system expected by Sunday. Low level flow ahead of this system should result in a much warmer afternoon Saturday courtesy of a down slope component ahead of the cold front that will push through by Sunday. Moisture will be limited, but the mid range models have come to reasonable agreement on a track that could result in a few showers over mainly NW Arkansas and possibly far northeast Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday.

Winds will increase out of the northwest Sunday and could become quite gusty with cooler temps, although the air mass behind this front will not be all that cold.

Early part of next week should remain quiet before a potentially stronger system moves into the region just beyond this forecast

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