Scattered showers and thunderstorms were tracking across northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas early this morning, ahead of a cold front draped across central Kansas.
Not expecting any severe weather this morning, but will see some pockets of brief, locally heavy rainfall. The HRRR and other CAM solutions suggest an uptick in convection by this afternoon as the weak boundary sags south and instability increases.
Not out of the question to see some brief gusty winds with some of the stronger storms, with the better chances stretching from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Precipitation will be exiting the area by this evening.
The surface boundary may eventually work as far south as the Red River, with slightly lower dewpoints likely into parts of northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas. Thus will likely see overnight lows fall back into the 60s in these areas for Monday and Tuesday night.
The upper ridge is expected to remain across the southwestern states/southern Rockies well into next week, with a rather active northerly/northwesterly upper flow pattern for our area.
Have introduced low pops for most of the period from Thursday into the weekend, and these chances will be refined with later forecasts. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures down a bit over seasonal norms.