9 AM UPDATE: A HIGH RISK remains for western Oklahoma and parts of Texas, BUT now the HIGH RISK has been shifted into central Oklahoma and the Enhanced Risk covers most of the NWA/RV area.
HIGH RISKS are very rare… only about 1 to 2 events for the entire year on average in the U.S. get a level 5 out of 5. The last high risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center was May 18, 2017, which was an active severe weather night for NWA. A significant tornado outbreak is looking likely out west later today, but the severe threat also includes the NWA/RV area later tonight.
All threats for severe weather will be possible for our area as you can see below. The hatched area for tornadoes and wind means a good probablility of significant severe, including the potential for strong tornadoes. This is a BIG system and make sure you remain weather ready and aware! Timing will be updated later today, but for our area in E OK and NWA, the timing window will be from 5 PM at the earliest until about 11 PM Monday night, with the most likely timing between 8-11 PM at this point. Timing will be adjusted throughout the day, so check back for more updates.
There still remains some uncertainty with the amount of storms that develop over our area, due to the differing model solutions with the future radar. Below are some of those differences.
-The 4km RPM (future radar and temps) has storms clipping parts of NWA during our timing window. Notice how the River Valley remains capped, meaning no storm development.
-The latest HRRR Extended (which gets updated every 6 hours) show storms just barely missing NWA and remaining in NE OK and SW MO. While this is entirely possible, it seems unreasonable due the tremendous amount of lift ahead of this massive intense upper-level system to our west.
After the potential round of severe weather Monday night into early Tuesday morning, more severe weather is also likely late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon as an intense line of storms moves through the area bringing damaging winds and even a few tornadoes.
As mentioned this morning, the Day 1 risk has been shifted farther east over our area, since the latest data supports the warm front lifting northward into our area. Most models develop storms south of the warm front and ahead of the cold front out west, which is called the warm sector. There could be additional changes to the risk and the latest Day 1 outlook that will be released at 11:30 AM CDT.
So, keep it here with your Weather Authority for the latest severe weather information.
–Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff