Weather Blog: Storm Chances to Begin the Week

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The strong/severe convective complex continues to push into southeast Kansas early this morning.

Storms may clip far northeast Oklahoma, however, activity should be slowly weakening as storms move into a more stable air-mass.

A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, pushing to just north of I-44 before stalling. Still some uncertainty regarding the overall extent of surface-based storms this afternoon/evening with a weak cap in place.

If storms do develop they would pose at least a limited severe threat with large hail and damaging winds, primarily near Tulsa and to the southwest where the higher instability will reside.

Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread late tonight along/north of frontal boundary as an upper wave moves into the southern Rockies. A flash flood watch will be issued for far northeast Oklahoma valid after midnight tonight and continue through at least Tuesday night.

Watch area will more than likely need to be expanded to include much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas given the heavy rain potential expected through at least Wednesday with widespread 3 to 5-inch rainfall totals expected.

In addition to the flooding threat, significant severe weather appears likely Tuesday into Tuesday night with the potential for very large hail/damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The severe weather/heavy rainfall threat will likely persist into Wednesday as the moist/unstable air-mass remain in place. 

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