Weather Blog: Storm Chances Tonight

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Convection continues to expand across northern Oklahoma lifting into southern KS in a zone of strong, warm advection and this will remain the favored area for precipitation through the morning.

Mild temps and breezy conditions will precede the higher rain chances.

The bulk of heaviest rains will be during the overnight hours with continued quick progression east and clearing the forecast area before sunrise Thursday.

Rainfall totals will be tempered somewhat by the faster progression, however, an axis of heavier totals is likely to extend into portions of northeast Oklahoma and also from southeast Oklahoma through west central Arkansas.

In these favored zones one to two inches of rainfall is likely. Data also continue to suggest meager
instability through the event which will reduce severe weather potential. That being said, wind profiles will feature very strong low-level winds and any briefly organized line segment will be capable of producing wind gusts.

Most locations will remain dry on Thursday with only low chances of additional showers developing on the trailing cold front which will be passing through the day.

Below normal temps will build into the region Friday and persist through the weekend offering a
sharp contrast to recent days. The evolution of the persistent troughing to our west from the late week through mid next week remains uncertain.

One consistent feature is the limited influence from a sheared wave passing on Saturday yielding only low chances of measurable snow. Thereafter the timing and placement of precipitation chances become much more uncertain and will temper this suite of blended guidance favoring a stronger solution before raising precipitation chances for early next week.
 

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