A shallow cold airmass and associated surface boundary, ongoing convection and freezing rain presenting immediate first-period challenges.
The warm sector continues to get suppressed to the south as the reinforcing shot of shallow cold air filters in from the northwest.
Convection overnight has mostly been occurring on the cold side of the front. Some storms have been severe, and have posed both a hail and wind threat. The severe threat will diminish from east to west as the morning progresses. Current severe watch encompasses southeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas and runs through 2 p.m.
Further north, freezing rain has been occurring, and ice accumulations meeting ice storm warning criteria have been realized with convective elements. While freezing precipitation is expected to be east of the current warning after 12 p.m., the warning will be extended to 3 p.m. The ice that has accumulated on power lines and tree limbs may create problems as northwest winds increase and gust around 30 miles an hour this morning.
Additional zones in the advisory area that was set to expire at 12 p.m. will be extended to 3 p.m. as well despite just a mention of flurries across parts of northeast Oklahoma between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m.
Anticipate just about all precipitation to be east of the forecast area after 12 p.m. From there, temperatures will continue to fall across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day, with limited recovery expected further to the north and northwest.
Quiet, but very cold conditions will round out the work week. Temperatures will begin to moderate over the weekend. Precipitation chances will increase over the weekend as warm advection ramps up ahead of the next upper system. Precipitation chances will continue into next week as the upper system moves into central Plains Tuesday.
Some brief periods of wintry weather will be possible with precipitation that occurs in locations where temperatures are near freezing.