The main forecast concerns this morning will be light winter weather potential Tuesday night thru Thursday and again this weekend.
It is a complicated forecast, both with respect to surface temperatures in the shallow arctic air and timing/location of wintry precipitation next weekend behind the stronger and deeper arctic blast.
Good news first. Today will be the best day of the upcoming seven. South winds return, and while a breezy afternoon is expected, the latest data isn`t showing as windy compared to 24 hours ago.
Highs will top out in the 60s over much of the area. Clouds increase on Tuesday so temps won`t be quite as warm. Patchy drizzle is expected to break out by evening and continue overnight Tuesday night.
A shallow arctic cold front will ooze down into the region beginning Tuesday night and will grip a good portion of the region by Wednesday night and Thursday. For this forecast, the NAM was followed primarily due to its superiority with handling shallow cold air masses, and then the raw ECMWF beyond the 84 hr mark.
The consensus blends don`t have a clue with this stuff. As a result, the freezing line drops down into northeast Oklahoma Wednesday into Wednesday evening with freezing drizzle and light icing possible.
An upper disturbance will spread light precip over the region late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Based on thermal profiles and very cold temps a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow is possible across east central/northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
The precip will be light, with minor to moderate travel impact potential. The ECMWF indicates that we will get a one day break as the shallow cold air erodes by Friday.
Now to the weekend. The next arctic blast is forecast to arrive Friday night into Saturday. Highs may not make freezing by Sunday across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. As they were doing yesterday, the two models show hints of lift from passing waves that could produce wintry precipitation over our area with the arctic cold in place. Agreement on timing is not there.
One model shows more precip today with the initial frontal surge, unlike what it was showing yesterday. The GFS continues to suggest a drier forecatBoth are hinting at some frontogenetic banded snow near the Kansas border late Saturday night.
The approach, for now, will be to keep pops low until the details can get ironed out.