Weather Blog: Sunny Skies for Friday

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A quasi-stationary front, denoting the edge of a shallow wedge of cool air lies roughly along i-44 this morning. 

The latest trend over the past hour or so indicates that the boundary may be beginning to retreat north. 

A few showers are showing up on radar north of the boundary, and a slight chance will continue into the morning across far northeast Oklahoma. 

The frontal boundary will continue to retreat north out of our area later today. 

The warm sector south of the front yesterday saw highs close to 90 degrees, and that will be the forecast for today across the forecast area. 

Today should be the warmest day of the next 7.

Rain/storm chances go back up late tonight and into the weekend in Oklahoma as the front pushes back south and east into the region. 

This frontal push will be a bit stronger, supported by the passage of the strong shortwave trough evident in WV imagery over socal.

This front will thus make more progress to the south and east compared to the current one, but this front will also eventually stall across eastern ok. 

Data indicates that the better pops will be along/north of the front thru the weekend, with much lower values to the south. 

The consensus guidance was adjusted to reflect this philosophy. 

There will be enough instability along the front to warrant at least limited/marginal severe weather potential.

Will lean toward the nam for frontal position forecast, as it tends to do well with shallow cool air.

A more substantial piece of energy, just off the pac northwest coast, will dive down over the great basin this weekend and into the desert southwest by Monday. 

As this occurs, significant amplification of the upper flow pattern will be underway, as the persist mid-Atlantic/southeast ridge amplifies as well. 

This will act to draw the weekend boundary north out of our area Sunday night into Monday, and rain/storm chances will go down, especially in the east and south.

The desert southwest upper system will open up and eject northeast across the plains Tuesday and Wednesday, as it will eventually become absorbed by another system diving down into the intermontane west. 

Surface low pressure will develop and lift northeast, dragging a Pacific front thru the region. 

Ahead of the boundary, there will be an axis of showers and storms with moderate
To locally heavy rainfall that will sweep across the region.

The GFS and ECMWF differ on when this will occur, with the GFS faster by 6 to 12 hours than the ECMWF. For this reason, pops were kept in the middle ground.

The latest suite of model data indicates that the better potential for heavy rainfall and flooding should remain to our north and west thru the weekend. 

The heavy rain axis will eventually shift east over our area ahead of the ejecting upper trough and surface cold front early next week, 

But should be more progressive in its movement to the east as it moves over our area, reducing the flood threat.
 

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