Two systems will affect the region over the upcoming week.
The main concerns will be winds and fire danger Wednesday ahead of the first system, and thunderstorm potential/severity Wednesday night into Thursday. Another system will affect the region over the weekend, with more storm chances.
Surface low pressure will develop over the southern high plains in advance of the upper system Wednesday. Strong south winds will develop over our area as a result.
Wind gusts may get close to wind advisory criteria from near Tulsa and points northwest of there. The strong south winds, combined with warm and dry conditions will yield an elevated fire spread potential over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
A rather narrow surface instability axis will develop over the Texas panhandle and far western Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon ahead of the dryline.
Lift from the upper wave near peak heating should get storms to fire and gradually increase in coverage as they spread east and northeast across our region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Model soundings over our region suggest all storms should be elevated, with some decent elevated cape and shear to support some elevated hailers.
We went with the highest pops across the north and lowest in the south near the Red River where capping issues reduce confidence in storm coverage.