Weather Blog: Thunderstorm Chances Return Tonight

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The main forecast concerns will be winds and fire weather today, followed by convective potential and severity tonight into Thursday.

There will be interest in the rain/storm chances this weekend with the next system.

Strong south winds are expected today as low pressure deepens over the southern high plains. The strong wind combined with the warm and dry conditions will yield elevated fire spread potential across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

A few storms are expected to form on the dryline this afternoon over the eastern Texas panhandle and far western Oklahoma. The latest short term hi-res guidance indicates that a gradual increase in coverage will occur across northern Oklahoma tonight and will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight while gradually weakening.

The thermodynamic environment over our area will be capped for surface based storms with low to moderate elevated instability. Effective shear will be better along and south of I-40.

Increasing warm advection may produce other isolated to scattered storms late tonight, and these will have the potential to be large hail producers.

Nonetheless, the threat isn`t significant, more toward the marginal end of the spectrum.

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