A moist deep layer air-mass, as evidenced by goes 16 water vapor imagery showing values approaching 2 inches, resides from the ark-latex up into Central Arkansas this morning.
Data in the area suggests this is about 150 percent of normal, which is saying something given the time of year.
The leading edge of the deeper moisture, which was down over the ark-latex yesterday, now lies over east central and Southeast Oklahoma this morning.
With this richer moisture moving over more of our area today, expect convective coverage overall to be quite a bit higher compared to yesterday.
Model soundings show very little if any cap and are quite unstable, hence the latest model data shows an earlier start and a gradual increase in coverage into the afternoon, especially over Northwest Arkansas closer to the highest deep layer moisture.
Locally heavy rainfall and isolated pulse severe storms are possible.
Expect scattered coverage again on Thursday, though with a gradual shift in the mid/upper winds to the northwest, this should begin to shift the richest deep layer
Moisture back to the east and confine the highest pops to the terrain again.
A convective potential on Friday will be more confined to the terrain during the day.
A disturbance in the now northwest flow will bring storm chances Friday night into Saturday.
The remainder of the weekend looks quiet, but that also means the heat turns up.
The warmest highs in the forecast are for Sunday and Monday.
Models continue to develop low pressure over the Gulf this weekend, with the latest ECMWF showing the system drifting northwest over Arkansas/Louisiana by the middle of the week.
This moisture-rich system, regardless of any tropical development which is likely to be minor, will bring lots of rainfall to the central and eastern gulf coast states next week.
Our area will be on the western fringe, but the ECMWF does suggest that our Northwest Arkansas and far Eastern Oklahoma counties could share in the wetness and thus pops are warranted for the early to middle part of next week.