Frontal boundary currently extends from northern Texas through Southeast Oklahoma and into southern Arkansas this morning.
A boundary is expected to lift north today, with uncertainty surrounding its northward progression.
Based on the latest trends, most model solutions seem too aggressive with placing the forecast area in the warm sector, with the southern extent of the shallow cold air. Early period temperatures will heavily favor this solution. Light rain already has developed ahead of the boundary in the southwest flow. Further north in the colder air, there may be patchy drizzle this morning, or light rain.
Concerning locations at or below freezing, any precipitation that develops looks to be after temperatures rise above freezing, so it will not include any mention of freezing precipitation this morning. Pops will continue to increase in time and will include thunder across most of the area after elevated instability increases. The boundary may lift a little further north on Wednesday as the main upper system draws closer, however, the NAM keeps much of northeast Oklahoma out of the warm sector altogether.
A Cold front is to move through Wednesday night, and during this period rainfall amounts, thunder and any severe potential will be maximized across the eastern zones.
Behind the front, a brief window for light wintry precip will happen across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as colder air surges into the area Thursday, with dry and cold conditions rounding out the end of the work week.
Temperatures will moderate over the weekend, however, rain chances will return over the weekend and into next week as a fast-moving wave in the upper flow moves through the Plains.