The zone of lift from the mid-level cold front is just now impinging on northeast Oklahoma and extends down into southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
A lightning strike was observed in the band moving into Osage/Pawnee counties, indicating there is at least some instability for the strong front to work with. This may act to produce narrower more intense bands of precip within the broader forcing zone.
This zone of lift will sweep east across the region thru the day today, and will be the main player. To the south, the warm conveyor precip is sliding across far southeast Oklahoma with lightning activity staying just to our south.
Using the latest hi-res guidance thermal fields, which we should be reminded are changing as the precip will be moving across the area today, areas north of I-44 stand the greatest potential for snow
accumulation, where amounts in the 2-4 inch range are possible.
Areas along or just south of I-44 will be in the transition zone when the heavier QPF moves over the region later this morning, and thus could limit accumulation some.
In addition, the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas will likely see a faster changeover and thus the potential for some higher accumulations in the 1-2 inch range as well.
With surface temps expected to be at or slightly above freezing during the event, accumulations will be mainly on elevated/grassy surfaces. Some slushy roads are possible for the duration of the heavier snows, however this should be temporary as roads will remain warm enough to remain primarily wet.
With some impact to travel possible, the winter weather advisory will be maintained as is.
The precip should come to a fairly quick end from west to east from mid afternoon into the early evening.
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