Weather Blog: Updating Rain Chances this Week

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The main issue this morning is fog.

Rain/thunder chances tomorrow and especially tomorrow night with the next upper system, winds and fire potential Thursday, and finally the weather next week, which is looking fairly unsettled.

Early morning surface analysis shows a pool of higher dewpoints lying along or near the Red River Valley this morning. The HRRR does indicate some potential for this fog to expand northward across eastern OK, but thus far this hasn`t happened.

A few points to the north of this fog are reporting low stratus but no fog, and this may be
more predominant north of the main fog area due to the lack of any surface flow to draw the higher dewpoints northward. Bottom line, will leave well-placed advisory alone and will expand if needed
based on obs trends.

As has been forecasted for several days, an upper wave currently over AZ/NM will move across the Plains over the next couple of days. As the system moves overhead, more upstream energy on the
nose of a potent upper jet across the northeast Pacific will dive south over the Plains, with mid-level cyclogenesis occurring over the Southeast states late this week.

As it turns out, the latest data indicates that the best chance of rain for our area will be
with the latter system as it organizes overhead Wednesday night.

The latest instability progs don`t look exciting for lightning potential, but if there is going to be some, it would be confined down close to the Red River on Wednesday evening as the upper
trough axis slides overhead.

As surface low pressure deepens to our southeast on Thursday, skies clear in the wake of the upper trough, and a more deeply mixed (relative to the time of year) boundary layer develops with more insolation, strong and gusty northwest winds are forecast.

The winds and drier conditions will raise fire weather concerns some, however, the forecast low ERC (energy release component) of the fuels suggests that a big fire weather day is not in the cards.

The more progressive pattern this week is expected to come to a halt next week, as a split flow blocking pattern evolves over the western half of the country.

Deep troughing over the southwest CONUS will eventually result in unsettled weather for the Plains
as the week wears on. With details still too far away to resolve, the NBM consensus PoPs were used to show the idea that PoPs will be gradually increasing with time next week, while not going too
high at any one location.

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