The main items worth mentioning in the forecast this morning will be winds and fire weather conditions later today and rain/storm chances toward the middle of next week in a more unsettled weather
Latest RAP analysis shows the upper trough axis is overhead as I type, and the lift has shifted off to the east of the region for the most part, along with the light rains. What is of more concern is the windy conditions expected to develop over the Plains later today.
The strong winds, with gusts to 35 mph most places and near 40 mph Pawnee and Osage counties, combined with drier air moving into the region with the northwest winds will yield a limited fire
Spread rates, should a fire get started, would be the greatest west of US 75 in NE OK. On the other hand, and this has been stated for several discussions, the ERC (energy release component) of the fuels across eastern OK is not favorable for the development of fires.
Now to the winds. Models have been consistent in suggesting gusty winds will occur later today as the upper system moves away.
The current forecast has near advisory conditions for portions of Osage and Pawnee counties, and a breezy day elsewhere. After collaboration with neighbors, our office will hold off on any wind
headlines at this time. The next shift can reevaluate and issue if needed.