A fairly eventful and largely frigid forecast is on track for the next seven days, with multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation accumulations into early next week.
At present, a slow-moving cold front is knocking on our doorstep, with colder air and northerly winds sitting just to the northwest of Osage County, in far south central Kansas.
The front should make it into areas northwest of Tulsa today. Farther to the south, lower clouds are approaching portions of southeast Oklahoma as moisture streams northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The clouds will continue to advance into the rest of the area through the day, but any precipitation should hold off until the evening and overnight hours, with the highest chances through Thursday colocated with the aforementioned front.
Precipitation types in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame will be dependent on two factors: The movement of the front and whether or not saturation will exist in the dendritic growth zone. The NAM shows the most aggressive southward push and given its superior handling of shallow cold air, the forecast will lean significantly toward its low-level thermal fields.
It is fairly dry in the mid levels through the event, though, differing from other models, especially Wednesday night and into Thursday. Given the presence of a mid level wave moving through the area during this same time frame, the moister mid level solution seems more plausible.
Therefore, the precipitation type forecast will generally shift from more drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight and Wednesday to more rain and freezing rain Wednesday night and Thursday.
Ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch or less will be possible, with the highest accumulations possible in the Missouri border counties in northwest Arkansas.
Things will dry out some to close the work week, with temperatures back to more normal levels by Friday. However, the warmer and drier weather will be short lived, with an even stronger cold front slated to push through Friday night and into Saturday.
A low chance of precipitation will be associated with the front on Saturday, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, including some potential for wintry precipitation types along and north of I-40.
Better precipitation chances will arrive Saturday night and into Sunday as a system drops in from the northern and central Rockies.
Accumulating snow should occur across parts of the area in association with this system, with parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas most likely to be affected.
We have increased accumulations some from the previous forecast but not nearly to the degree that the GFS would suggest. Another system drops through the area during the Monday-Monday night time frame, bringing another quick shot of light snow.