A cold front is expected to move into the area this evening, which will clash with the extreme heat and humidity that is in place this Monday across the area. These ingredients along with the extreme instability will lead to explosive thunderstorm development tonight.
Storms will initially develop to our NW in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma around sundown tonight (around 8 p.m.). These storms will move into NWA at the earliest around 9 p.m., but most likely a little after 10 p.m. Storms will be moving SE and eventually move into the River Valley around midnight. The entire storm timing window will be from 9 p.m. Monday until 3 a.m. Tuesday.
Due to the extreme instability across the area, the main threat from these storms will be damaging gusty winds. The larger hail threat will be in the early stages of the storm development when the storms are farther to the northwest of the area.
The tornado threat will be lessening as the storms congeal into bigger groups of thunderstorms and become less isolated. There will also be the potential for short bursts of extremely heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.
So to recap… here are the takeaways.
- Intense storms are likely late tonight a few hours after sunset
- Storms will be isolated when they initially develop in SE KS & NE OK
- Storms will be getting weaker as they move farther SE into the RV
- Main threats include damaging winds and large hail
- Tornado threat gets lower the farther south the storms travel
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