Weather 101: WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks

Weather 101

The Weather Prediction Center (located in College Park, Maryland) is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NCEP is one of the offices that is associated with the National Weather Service (NWS).

Image of the Weather Prediction Center Building in College Park, Maryland. Image: NOAA

One of the responsibilities of the WPC is to issue forecast outlooks for excessive rainfall. Similar to Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (more details by clicking here).

Excessive rainfall category chart from the WPC.

“In the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, the WPC forecasts the probability that rainfall will exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles (40 kilometers)” (Weather Prediction Center).

LevelRisk CategoryProbability of Rainfall Exceeding Flash Flood Guidance
1 (Green)Marginal (MRGL)5-10%
2 (Yellow)Slight (SLGT)10-20%
3 (Red)Moderate (MDT)20-50%
4 (Pink)High (HIGH)>50%
Risk probabilities for the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Note: a high risk can only be issued on a day 1 or day 2 outlook.

Remember, if you ever come across any flood waters while driving, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.

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