Weather Blog: Flash flooding potential increases Tuesday


Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff looks at the latest trends in the data and gives you the details.

Flash Flood Watch from 4 a.m. until 4 p.m. Tuesday September 24, 2019

The latest computer model data is signaling widespread heavy rain across the area with the potential for significant rain totals in localized spots. A stalled out frontal boundary is slicing through NWA tonight, which will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development. Check out the latest HRRR model showing rapid storm development starting early Tuesday morning, Sept. 24.

Simulated Radar from the 7 PM HRRR Computer Model

The weather setup is favorable for heavy rain potential with the abundant surface moisture south of this boundary in the River Valley with dew points in the mid to nearly upper 70s.

The atmosphere is loaded with moisture for this time of the year, which will lead to extremely heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ inches per hour. That combined with upper-level flow parallel to the boundary is a classic set up for a heavy rain event due to training thunderstorms over the same area.

There’s a clear signal somewhere in our weather coverage area, could see significant, potentially life-threatening flooding Tuesday, but it’s impossible to pinpoint this exact area before the storms develop. Below are the various rain totals from several different computer models. The higher resolution computer models are producing significant rain amounts of 5 inches in localized spots.

Rain Totals from RPM Model
Rain Totals from GFS Model
Rain Totals from HRRR Model
Rain Totals from NAM 20km Model
Rain Totals from ECMWF Model
Rain Totals from HRRR Extended Model

Notice how the higher resolution computer models are showing significant rain totals in very localized spots mainly in parts of the River Valley. It will all depend on where the thunderstorms develop early Tuesday morning to determine who will see the potential for significant flash flooding.

Remember flooding is the #1 killer of thunderstorms. If you encounter flooded roads… TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!

Keep it here with your Weather Authority for the latest severe weather and flooding information. -Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff

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