Weather Blog: SUNDAY PM UPDATE – Tornado watch issued, severe weather expected this evening

Weather Blog

Strong/Severe Storms Possible Sunday Evening

Sunday Afternoon 3:50 P.M. Update:

Tornado watch for Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley on Sunday, October 24, 2021.

A tornado watch has been issued for everyone in Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley until 11 P.M. CDT Sunday, October 24. A watch means conditions are possible for tornadoes to develop.

Sunday Afternoon 1:45 P.M. Severe Weather Update:

Not much has changed in the forecast from last night. We are still anticipating strong/severe storms later today in Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley. Thunderstorms will develop just to our northwest in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma before moving into Northwest Arkansas and eventually the River Valley.

All severe weather threats remain possible as storms develop. Damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and/or isolated tornadoes could occur with any storm that forms.

Looking at the individual threats, Northwest Arkansas has a slightly greater chance for severe storms compared to the River Valley. The hatched area on the tornado risk indicates where there is 10% chance or more for a strong tornado (EF 2-5) within 25-miles of any point. For the damaging wind risk, a hatched area indicates where there is a 10% chance of 75 MPH gusts or stronger within 25-miles of any point.

The expected timing of the storms remains 5 P.M. – 10 P.M. across our region. Storms will begin in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma before moving into Northwest Arkansas. Storms will begin to push into the River Valley a little bit later in the evening. Any one of these storms will have the potential to produce severe weather.

HRRR forecast model for Sunday, October 24, 2021. Updated: 1:30 P.M. CDT Sunday, October 24, 2021.

Weather Safety & Education Links

Want to learn more about severe weather and what to do when it is threatening your area? Check out our weather 101 and weather blog links below.

Tornado Content

Weather 101: Know The Difference – Tornado Watches, Warnings, & Emergencies!

Weather 101: What To Do In A Tornado Warning

Weather Blog: Outdoor Tornado Safety

Weather 101: How do Tornadoes Form?

Weather 101: Tornado Vs. Landspout

Weather 101: “Look! It’s a funnel cloud” or is it? Difference between funnel clouds and SCUD clouds

Weather 101: EF0 and EF1 Tornadoes

Weather 101: EF2 Tornadoes

Weather 101: EF3 Tornadoes

Weather 101: EF4 Tornadoes

]Weather 101: EF5 Tornadoes

Severe Thunderstorm Content

Weather 101: What is a severe thunderstorm?

Weather 101: Know the difference – severe thunderstorm watch vs. warning

Weather 101: Lightning and Thunder

Weather Blog: Outdoor Lightning Safety

Weather 101: How do thunderstorms form?

Weather 101: How Does Hail Form?

Weather 101: Understanding the cap and how it develops

Weather 101: Microbursts and Aviation

Weather Blog: Starting August 2 – “destructive” severe t-storm warnings will set off your phone’s wireless emergency alert system

Flash Flooding Content

Weather 101: What is a flash flood?

Weather 101: Know the difference – flash flood watch, warning, & emergency!

Ways to Stay Informed

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Ways to stay informed, be sure to download the NWA Weather authority app from the Apple App Store or Google Play.

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Download Our NWA Weather App

Also, be sure to find, like, and follow us on social media for the latest forecast updates, watches and warning information, and severe weather live streams.

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You can also watch our ENTIRE severe weather live stream ((Facebook + on-air) on our website! Here is the link you will want to bookmark and save for storm coverage.

We will also send a notification through the NWA Weather Authority and KNWA/FOX24 News app if & when we begin our severe weather coverage. This will also allow you to stream us anywhere with a cellphone or wifi signal.

Remember, we want you to be prepared, not scared. Continue to monitor the weather forecast throughout the day on Sunday for the latest updates and make sure you have 3 different ways to receive weather alerts should they be issued for your area.

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Saturday Evening 7 P.M. Severe Weather Update:

Forecast Details & Timing

A strong cold front will bring the potential for severe weather to Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley late Sunday afternoon and through the evening hours. This will be after a very mild and windy Saturday night with low temperatures in the 60s. Wind gusts up to 25 MPH will be possible overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Throughout the day on Sunday, our wind will increase out of the south up to 25 MPH sustained with gusts up to 35 MPH. The southerly winds will help move moisture northward ahead of the cold front, providing more fuel for storms to use in the afternoon.

Isolated supercells (rotating thunderstorms) may develop over Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley before a cold front moves through. Any one of these supercells will have the potential to become severe and produce damaging winds, large hail, or an isolated tornado. Once the main cold front moves across our region Sunday evening, the severe weather threat will come to an end.

The latest day 2 severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the majority of our entire area at an enhanced risk (level 3/5) for severe storms.

Day 2 severe storm outlook as of 6:30 P.M. Saturday, October 23, 2021.

Breaking the risk down into individual risks, we can see an increased risk for Northwest Arkansas compared to the River Valley for all threats.

When will these storms hit? Thunderstorms will start to develop in Northwest Arkansas as early as 5 P.M. Sunday and move southeast into the River Valley as early as 7 P.M. Sunday evening. Everything is expected to move out of the region completely by 10 P.M. Sunday night. There will not be any overnight severe weather potential for Northwest Arkansas or the River Valley.

18Z NAM 3KM forecast model for Sunday, October 24, 2021. Update: 6:30 P.M. Saturday, October 23, 2021.

Weather Safety & Education Links

Want to learn more about severe weather and what to do when it is threatening your area? Check out our weather 101 and weather blog links below.

Tornado Content

Severe Thunderstorm Content

Flash Flooding Content

Ways to Stay Informed

Ways to stay informed, be sure to download the NWA Weather authority app from the Apple App Store or Google Play.

Also, be sure to find, like, and follow us on social media for the latest forecast updates, watches and warning information, and severe weather live streams.

You can also watch our ENTIRE severe weather live stream ((Facebook + on-air) on our website! Here is the link you will want to bookmark and save for storm coverage.

We will also send a notification through the NWA Weather Authority and KNWA/FOX24 News app if & when we begin our severe weather coverage. This will also allow you to stream us anywhere with a cellphone or wifi signal.

Remember, we want you to be prepared, not scared. Continue to monitor the weather forecast throughout the day on Sunday for the latest updates and make sure you have 3 different ways to receive weather alerts should they be issued for your area.


Saturday 5:30 PM Facebook Live Update:

Friday Night 10:45 P.M. Facebook Live Update:


Friday Afternoon 4 P.M. Update:

Severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a storm system and associated cold front push through the area. At this time, all severe weather hazards appear possible, but some uncertainty remains in the exact threats and timing. Keep checking the latest forecasts for the next couple of days as Sunday approaches. Now is a great time to practice your severe weather safety plan!

Well, here we go again! Another Sunday severe weather risk. All of our viewing area is under a level three Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms developing as early as late in the afternoon but more likely early Sunday evening. Hail, strong thunderstorm wind and tornadoes will be possible.

After a beautiful Friday, thunderstorms will develop early Saturday morning across Northwest Arkansas. These thunderstorms will be confined to the northern half of our viewing area so little if any rain is expected in River Valley areas.

Along the Missouri border, however, one inch or more of rain is possible Saturday morning. The morning storm cluster moves out Saturday afternoon, followed by a very mild afternoon. Sunday will start out very mild with temps in the 60s with the humidity climbing to spring-like levels.

Throughout the day on Sunday, mainly cloudy skies are expected. We could see a few thunderstorms develop over our area by Sunday afternoon. Those could become severe.

Then with the cold front moving in Sunday evening, scattered to possibly numerous thunderstorms will develop over us, representing the higher risk of severe potential. We will monitor this weather event through the weekend.

Ways to stay informed, be sure to download the NWA Weather authority app from the Apple App Store or Google Play.

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