Weather Blog: November 2021 outlook

Weather Blog

A look at the November 2021 temperature and precipitation outlooks for NW Arkansas and the River Valley.

It’s time to say goodbye to October and hello to November! Here is an overview of how the overall weather pattern is shaping up for the 11th month of the year.

Temperature Outlook

If you love cold weather, then this forecast is not for you, unfortunately. Forecast models and surface observations are indicating the current weather pattern favors a warmer-than-average November in the southwestern U.S. and New England. The central Rockies and southern Plains also favor a warmer than average month with this pattern, however, the chances are lower compared to the southwestern states and New England.

The forecast shows an equal chance of a warm November and cold November in the southeastern states. For Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley, our eastern Oklahoma counties are slightly favored for a warmer than average November. Our Arkansas and SW Missouri counties are in the neutral zone. This means the forecast does not favor a warm November or a cold November.

Precipitation Outlook

October was a very rainy month for our region and November is looking a little bit drier. Overall, the pattern favors a wet November in the northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and Great Lake region. A dry November is favored for the Rio Grande Valley in Texas and New Mexico and across the southeastern states.

Both Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley are in the neutral zone, meaning the forecast doesn’t favor a rainier or drier month.

November Preview

Northwest Arkansas

Looking at the statistics for Northwest Arkansas from 1991-2020, we see an 11°F drop in the average daily high, going from the mid-60s to the mid-50s, in November. Overnight low temperatures will drop to below freezing by the end of the month at Drake Field in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

Our sunrise and sunset times change significantly throughout November, thanks to Daylight Saving Time ending on Sunday, November 7 at 2 A.M. CDT. Our sunrise will move back to just after 7 A.M. by the end of the month, but our sunsets will change by 78 minutes. Between November 1 and November 30, the sunset will move from 6:20 P.M. CDT to just before 5 P.M. Overall, Northwest Arkansas will lose 46-minutes of sunlight in November.

In the precipitation department, Northwest Arkansas picks up 3.68″ of precipitation in November. However, it is not all rain! On average, Drake Field records 0.2″ of snowfall this month.

River Valley

In the River Valley, our average high falls into the 50s from the upper 60s and our average lows will drop into the mid-30s by November 30.

Just like Northwest Arkansas, we will see a big change in our sunrise and sunset times in the River Valley because of Daylight Saving Time. Our sunrise on November 1 is 7:39 A.M. CDT and will move to 7:07 A.M. CDT on November 30. We will begin the month with our sunsets at 6:22 P.M. CDT but end with sunsets occurring at 5:05 P.M. CDT, a 77-minute difference. Overall, we will lose 45-minutes of daylight in November.

Our monthly precipitation average for November in the River Valley is slightly higher compared to Northwest Arkansas. Fort Smith Regional Airport typically receives 3.85″ of rainfall throughout the month. Unlike Northwest Arkansas, the River Valley does not typically average any snowfall accumulation in November. The River Valley typically begins to average snowfall a month later, in December.

Keep in mind, this is an overall look at the pattern for November 2021. The daily/weekly variations in the forecast may not follow the outlooks exactly. Be sure to stay up to date with your Weather Authority team on all the forecast details on-air, online, and on social media!

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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