The month of pumpkin patches, apple picking, haunted houses, and of course, the best holiday of all Halloween (at least in my opinion) is back, and here is a look at how our overall weather pattern is shaping up for the 10th month of the year.

Temperature Outlook

If you’re wondering when sweater weather (or sweata weatha for us northerners) will be moving in, the overall weather pattern for the Lower 48 is favoring a warmer than average pattern. The greatest chance for a warm October will be in the northern Great Lakes and northern Central plains.

Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley are also favored for a warmer than average October overall in the expected pattern.

Only western Washington and Oregon have slightly better chances for a cooler October overall in this forecast.

Precipitation Outlook

If you need rain, then you are going to like this outlook. The Climate Precipitation Center (CPC) forecast favors above-average precipitation across the central U.S. and Pacific Northwest. The overall pattern favors drier than normal conditions across the Northeast and New England.

Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley’s expected weather pattern for October slightly favors above-average precipitation for the month.

October Preview

Northwest Arkansas

Northwest Arkansas will continue to cool down throughout October with our average highs dropping from the mid-70s into the mid-60s by Halloween. At night, our temperatures will fall from the low-50s to the low-40s.

Fayetteville’s average first frost occurs this month. October 19th is the average date for our first light frost at Drake Field but has occurred as early as late September.

In the rainfall department, we typically see around 4.50″ at Drake Field in October. Our sunrise and sunset times continue to get closer together throughout the month. Fayetteville will lose 66 minutes of daylight with our sunsets occurring before 6:30 PM. Our sunrise will occur about a half-hour later on Halloween compared to the start of October.

River Valley

Fort Smith will also see a double-digit drop in its average high temperature this month. Our average high on October 1 is 82°F and falls to 70°F by Halloween. Our overnight lows will fall from the upper-50s to the mid-40s.

Fort Smith typically doesn’t see its first frost until early November, however, it has occurred as early as October 7.

In terms of sunlight, we will lose 63 minutes of daylight overall in Fort Smith and the River Valley in October. Our sunrise will move from 7:13 A.M. to 7:38 A.M., 25 minutes later. At the beginning of the month, our sunsets will occur at 7:01 P.M. but will be before 6:30 P.M. by the time Halloween rolls around.

In the precipitation department, Fort Smith typically sees a little less compared to Northwest Arkansas, receiving 4.42″ of rain in October.

Keep in mind, this is an overall look at the pattern for October 2021. The daily/weekly variations in the forecast may not follow the outlooks exactly. Be sure to stay up to date with your Weather Authority team on all the forecast details on-air, online, and on social media!