Weather Blog: Outlook for Fall 2021

Weather Blog

Climate Prediction Center Releases September - November 2021 Outlook

Fall is just around the corner! Besides colorful leaves, the return of football, and pumpkin pie, fall marks the return of cooler weather as we head into winter. Last week, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their 3-month forecast for September, October, and November (known together as meteorological fall). Here’s an overview of how the overall weather pattern is expected to shape up this fall season.

Temperature Outlook

Overall, fall 2021 is expected to be above-average in the temperature department for a majority of the Lower 48 states.

The Desert Southwest and 4-Corners Region have the highest probability of a warmer than average fall. New England and the Mid-Atlantic are also highly favored to have above-average warmth this fall season. The weather pattern for the Central Plains is expected to favor above-average temperatures this September thru November, but the chance is not as high as the Desert Southwest or New England.

Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley are on the line between neutral (not above-average, nor below-average) and slightly above-average for fall 2021.

The majority of the River Valley, along with most of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, is considered to be in the neutral zone for temperatures. The overall weather pattern does not favor above-average nor below-average temperatures in this region. Another way to think about it is the region has an equal chance of seeing above-average or below-average temperatures overall this fall.

Northwest Arkansas is mainly in the slightly above-average category (the area shaded in light orange). This means the region has a slightly better chance for above-average temperatures this fall.

Precipitation Outlook

You probably heard of Luke Bryan’s song “Rain Is A Good Thing” and many of us are probably hoping for more rain from Mother Nature as our lawns and gardens continue to dry up. Unfortunately, the overall weather pattern for meteorological fall 2021 (September – November) does not look like it’s going to help us out, at least in providing better chances for rain than average.

The forecasted weather pattern over the next 3 months is expected to favor drier than normal conditions over the southern Rockies and 4-Corners region of the United States. The Central Plains is slightly favored to see below-average precipitation overall as well. The rest of the Lower 48, including Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley, are in the neutral zone.

Just like the temperature outlook, the neutral zone does not favor an above-average rainfall pattern nor a drier than average one. These areas have equal chances of seeing either one over the next 3 months.

Keep in mind, the outlooks are generalizations of the overall pattern this fall season. We will still see cool days and heavy periods of rain, as well as hot and dry weather, over the next few months.

Be sure to stay up to date on the weather with your NWA Weather Authority team!

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