Update: As of Friday, June 11 at 9 PM
A complex of severe storms to our north, currently located over Kansas City, MO will continue to progress towards the south as we head through the evening. This complex will be moving in most likely right around sunset with damaging wind and hail the main threats.
Our atmosphere will be primed and ready for thunderstorms with temperatures climbing into the 90s across the region, and dew points sticking in the mid 70s.
The one question is how strong will the cap be when the storms arrive? The model guidance is indicating that we will be seeing a strong cap, but the models also do not have current placement of the storms correct. This situation will be a wait and see how the system evolves. We do believe that you do need to stay weather aware this evening. This is especially true for those of you attending the Arkansas super regional baseball game!
Latest Risk From Storm Prediction Center
A level 2/5 does include all of Benton, most of Washington, most of Carroll, and parts of Madison and Boone counties in Northwest Arkansas.
Most of the River Valley is under a level 1/5 except for small portions of Crawford and Sequoyah counties which are included in the level 2/5.
Timing of Storms
The current timing that makes the most sense brings the storms in around 8-8:30 pm. Most of the other models are too slow with the progression of the storms. A lot of the time models do not take into account the speed of the cold air (cold pool) being produced by the storms. This means storms arrive earlier than models indicate.
The severe threats that could be experienced this evening are damaging wind, large hail, and a non-zero tornado threat.
Damaging wind– Places in the Kansas City metro have reported multiple wind gusts well over 70 mph. A few have reached up to 80 mph in some cases! Multiple damage reports have shown up as well.
Large hail– Hail up to an inch in diameter is possible with this line. Some cases of hail over an inch in diameter are not out of the question.
Tornadoes– Though the shear is weak, a few weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out completely with the atmosphere as unstable as it currently is.
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