A strong weather system developing to our west will move into our area through the morning hours of our Wednesday. This will drag a cold front through the area that will act as a lifting mechanism for storms.
Latest Timing (6 AM thru 2 PM) and Developments
The latest high resolution HRRR run has shown the system slowing down a bit. This is in comparison to the earlier model run which brought the system just a hair quicker.
As it stands now, a line of storms form right around sunrise, and march eastward. The main threat with this early round of storms is large hail. IF this line blows up in the early morning hours as the models are currently indicating, then the midday round will be weaker. This means the severe threat would diminish quite a bit as well.
If the morning round does NOT materialize, then the midday severe threat will be greater, with all threats on the table including tornadoes.
Scenario 1: Early line of storms form with the possibility of large damaging hail and some gusty winds. Storms could briefly pulse to severe status as they push through.
Scenario 2: Early round of storms does NOT form. All severe threats are on the table. This includes large hail, damaging wind, and some isolated tornadoes are all possible. Midday timing will allow storms to tap into an unstable atmosphere with more t-storm fuel a possibility.
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