Weather Blog: Severe storms likely late tonight into early Monday morning

Weather Blog

A very large potent weather system moves in tonight bringing the potential for intense storms. Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff breaks down all the details.

Latest Storm Outlook as of 1 AM Sunday Oct 20, 2019

7 a.m. UPDATE: There is an ENHANCED severe weather risk for late tonight Sunday into EARLY Mon morning. The BIG storm system I’ve been mentioning for the last several days moves in tonight and could pack quite the punch. Today will be the calm before the storm, except the southerly winds, which will become rather gusty by this evening.

3km NAM model with storm moving in around midnight into early Mon morning.

Storms are expected to erupt in southern and east-central Oklahoma tonight a little after sundown and continue to blast east into western AR around midnight. The storms tonight could become rather intense with all modes of severe weather possible (tornadoes, damaging winds and hail).

Tornado risk for Sunday Night into Monday Morning from 1 AM SPC Outlook
Tornado risk from the latest European model
Significant tornado parameter at 11 p.m. tonight from the HRRR Model
Damaging wind risk for Sunday Night into Monday Morning from 1 AM SPC Outlook
Severe risk from the latest European model

Right now, some models are struggling to bring back the instability into the area, but other models (like the European) have the thunderstorm fuel come roaring back late tonight before the storm complex arrives.

The greatest potential to see this higher surface-based instability will be in SE Oklahoma into the River Valley in western Arkansas. Storms will still be likely across the entire area and low-level wind shear will be more than sufficient to produce rotating storms and tornadoes.

Surface-based instability (CAPE) at midnight from HRRR Model

So in summary….

  • Storms are likely tonight into early Monday morning.
  • Some storms could be rather intense with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
  • The most likely area for tornadoes (some strong) will be farther south in SE OK & SW AR, however embedded rotating storms with tornadoes within a line will still be possible over our entire weather coverage area.
  • We will likely get what’s called a QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) tonight, which tends to produce most of NWA’s tornado events.

Here’s what you and your family can do to prepare for this potential severe weather event.

This is first of MANY updates today. I’ll be doing several Facebook lives and app updates throughout your Sunday. Keep it here with your Weather Authority for the latest severe weather information. -Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff

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