Weather Blog: Severe storms possible Tuesday late night

Weather Blog

A Strong System Will Bring the Potential for Severe Storms Tuesday Night. Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff Gives You the Threats and Expected Timing

NEW UPDATE at 3 PM Tuesday, November 24: Here’s the latest severe weather potential.

Lots of rain and cloud cover remained across the area this afternoon, which is keeping the temperatures down and limiting the instability for storms tonight. Here’s the updated severe weather risk for tonight. Nearly all of our area is under a level 1 out of 5 (marginal) risk.

Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated at 2 PM.

The system moving in tonight is a STRONG system, but thankfully it appears we’ll be lacking some of the ingredients to bring tornado potential to Northwest Arkansas.  There are signs that a part of the River Valley will be under a low tornado threat, which is mainly along and south of I-40 in Le Flore, Sebastian, and Scott counties.

Here’s what we know:

  • On and off showers/storms remain this late afternoon and should continue into the evening hours.
  • Strong to severe storms look to develop as the main energy swings in around 8 PM. These storms will rapidly develop and they’ll also be moving at nearly 50 mph!
  • The most likely timing (at this point) for the strongest storms bringing damaging wind potential will be from 10 PM tonight until 1 AM early Wed morning.
  • If you remember what the wind was like with the storms Saturday Nov 14, this system will bring similar conditions. Secure your patio furniture and grills for tonight.

Here’s what we don’t know:

  • Instability might just barely return in the River Valley tonight allowing for surface-based storms to develop. If this low-level instability does return even more into the area (not likely), the wind shear is quite favorable for tornadoes.
  • There’s a chance that storms remain sub-severe in Northwest Arkansas all evening, but due to the tremendous amount of wind energy with this system… winds up to 60 mph will be possible.
Latest Day 1 Convective Outlook Threats Updated at 2 AM
Latest HRRR Model with Storm Timing

After this system races through the area early Wednesday morning, the wind will switch to the west bringing a significant drop in temperatures. Thanksgiving is looking gorgeous, but another system will be moving in for the upcoming weekend. Keep it here with your Weather Authority Team for the latest severe weather information.

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