Day 1 Convective Outlook Issued at 3 PM CDT April 5, 2022

A strong system will be clipping Northwest Arkansas bringing the potential for severe storms as a cold front blasts into the area late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Here’s the latest information with the threats and timing.

Day 1 Convective Outlook Severe Threats (Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes, Hail and Wind)

All threats will be possible with these isolated storms that develop ahead of the cold front, included the potential for a tornado or two with any isolated cells.

Tornado Threat For Overnight. A Tornado or Two Will Be Possible

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 out of 5 (marginal) risk for severe storms in the Northwest Arkansas area. Isolated severe storms will likely develop late tonight before midnight lasting until the early morning hours around 3 A.M.

Understanding Storm Prediction Center Risk Levels and What Kind of Severe Weather They Can Bring

The timing of these storms is expected to be OVERNIGHT… while some of you are sleeping from 11 P.M. CDT Tuesday night until 3 A.M. CDT Wednesday morning. ALL models show storm potential developing along the cold front grazing Northwest Arkansas, but the River Valley area is a little more uncertain due to the lack of upper-level support to form storms.

Timing of the Storms In Northwest Arkansas

We will have to watch this timing closely, because there are indications the wind shear and instability will be sufficient for rotating storms, including tornadoes. The window of opportunity for tornadoes will be brief, but it does exist especially if storms can remain isolated.

Significant Tornado Parameter with Latest HRRR Model

We’ll continue to keep you updated with the latest threats and timing. If storms start to threaten our area, we’ll be providing live streaming of our weather coverage, so keep it here with your Weather Authority Team for the latest information.