Set-Up:
Cloud cover has moved out of the region and instability has moved into central Oklahoma. Models currently project this instability to move into our area after sunset tonight. However, we are still capped and this will limit storm formation. If this cap holds, we will not get as big of a severe weather event. If this cap breaks, the environment is favorable for rotating thunderstorms.
Current Situation:
A few storms have gone up across SW Missouri. Tornado warnings were issued for a few storms out of our viewing area. This shows that the environment is ripe for rotating thunderstorms IF we can get any storms to break through the cap.
Does the cold front heading towards our area provide enough lift to break through the cap? This remains to be seen. We will continue to watch this closely.
Timing for Storms:
Our severe threat will be greatest from 6 PM-11 PM Saturday. Tornado watch does go until 12AM CST.
THREAT LEVEL: 2/5 (slight) for severe weather for almost everyone (few parts of the River Valley and NE Oklahoma are level 1/5).
Hazards:
The hail risk is low. This area includes most of Northwest Arkansas and the northern tier of the River Valley. Hail could grow up to an inch in diameter.
The threat for damaging wind is low for Eastern OK. The threat is at a medium level for most of Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley especially as you head eastward. Wind gusts of 60 mph or greater is possible.
Most of Eastern OK and most of the River Valley is under a low threat for tornadoes. The threat is medium for most of Northwest Arkansas and Crawford, Franklin, and Johnson Counties in the River Valley. Tornadoes would likely be isolated if we see any.
Keep it with your Weather Authority team for the latest updates on the severe weather potential as it unfold throughout this evening!
