You can feel the return of the heat and humidity already if you step outside your door. This along with the passage of a cold front will lead to an increased chance of us seeing some strong to severe storms as we head into your weekend.
Severe Weather Set-Up
A cold front is expected to push towards our region from the northwest overnight Friday into Saturday morning. This front will bring scattered showers and maybe a few thundershowers to the region for the start of our Saturday. The stronger storms should stay to our north in southwest MO.
The front will then likely stall out across the River Valley late Saturday morning into the afternoon. With temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid-90s and very high dew points in the mid-70s, the conditions will be ripe for thunderstorm re-development along the front.
This places the greatest threat for severe weather across the River Valley during the evening hours of our Saturday. This does not mean that Northwest Arkansas is totally clear of the threat, but the majority of the stronger storms should stay concentrated across the River Valley.
Severe Weather Threats
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a level 1/5 for severe weather for Saturday morning into the morning hours of Sunday. The most likely timing of the severe weather would be the late afternoon into the evening across the southern tier of Northwest Arkansas and the entire River Valley.
The greatest threat with these storms will be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The overall risk for high winds is low but, not zero. Make sure to prepare now and tie down any loose outdoor items. These could include items such as lawn furniture, trampolines, or grills.
Timing of Storms
The storms that are forming along the front Friday evening will move SSE into SW Missouri by the pre-dawn hours of our Saturday. They will likely weaken as they move into Northwest Arkansas through the morning. The storms will push the frontal boundary into the northern tier of the River Valley.
With afternoon heating we will likely see redevelopment along the boundary. These will be the storms we need to watch for the marginal severe threat. Some of the storms could produce brief periods of damaging wind. This activity will then push SE and move out of the area by late Saturday evening.
Make sure to have a way to receive warnings especially if you plan to be outdoors through the afternoon and evening hours.
Keep it with your Weather Authority for the latest on this severe threat!