Weather Blog: Weather Alert Day! Monday afternoon update on tonight’s severe weather threat

Weather Blog

Monday Midday Update On Tonight's Severe Weather Update

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS — Monday is a Weather Alert Day! Severe weather is expected to impact NW Arkansas and the River Valley tonight and last into Tuesday morning. Here are the latest forecast details.

Severe Weather Risk

The latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (Monday AM – Tuesday AM) puts most of NW Arkansas and the River Valley under a level 3/5 (enhanced) risk. Parts of Benton County and SW Missouri are included in a slight risk (level 2/5).

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, May 3, and the morning of Tuesday, May 4 from the Storm Prediction Center as of the 3 PM Monday.

Important, do not focus on the exact placement of the risk boundaries. Everyone in NW Arkansas and the River Valley is at risk for severe storms tonight.

Tornado Watch For Eastern Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for Adair, Sequoyah, and Le Flore counties in eastern Oklahoma until 11PM Monday night. As of 4PM Monday, Arkansas is not under a tornado watch.

Individual Severe Threats

Looking at the individual threats, all severe weather threats are on the table.

Damaging winds are the highest threat in the region with significant hail to follow. Thunderstorm wind gusts over 75mph (hurricane-force) will be possible tonight. Hail over the size of a lime/hen egg (2-inches in diameter) will also be possible in the areas with hatched area.

There is a medium tornado threat in the River Valley with the western section under a hatched area. A hatched tornado threat shows where there is a 10% or greater risk of significant tornadoes (EF 2-EF 5 strength).


The most likely timeframe for storms will be after 8 PM Monday – 3 AM Tuesday morning.

12PM Monday HRRR model run for Monday, May 3 and Tuesday, May 4

Forecast models are suggesting showers and a few thunderstorms will stick around for Tuesday morning and possibly early afternoon Tuesday.

Remember D.U.C.K.

If a tornado warning is issued for your neighborhood, remember DUCK!

  1. Go to the lowest level of your home or the building you are in.
  2. Try to get under something. Cover yourself with blankets, pillows, and put helmets on to protect your heads.
  3. Move to the center of the house. You want to get to the most interior room. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.
  4. Keep away from windows. Broken glass can fly through the air and cause serious injury.

Stay Weather Aware!

We say it all the time, but be weather-aware Monday night. Watch the sky and have a plan in place should a severe weather warning be issued.

While severe weather significantly impacting any one person’s home is relatively low on even the severe weather days with the highest risk, please remain vigilant Monday evening. Watch the forecast for updates and stay on top of the situation throughout the evening.

Have at least 3 different ways to receive warnings (OUTDOOR SIRENS DO NOT COUNT).

Some examples to receive warning information include

  • NOAA weather radio
  • Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) system
  • NWA Weather Authority app (click to download for free)
  • watch KNWA/FOX24 for breaking weather information
  • Third-party subscription services (example: WeatherCall)
  • Your county/city emergency alert service (example: BCAlert for Benton County residents).

Finally, be sure to follow your NWA Weather Authority team on social media to receive the latest forecast information.

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