Weather Blog: Weather Alert Day! Severe weather possible Monday, May 3

Weather Blog

Sunday Night Update On Monday's Severe Weather Update

Monday, May 3 is a Weather Alert Day! Severe weather is expected to impact NW Arkansas and the River Valley Monday, May 3 during the evening hours and overnight into Tuesday morning. Here are the latest forecast details.

Severe Weather Risk

Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, May 3, and the morning of Tuesday, May 4 from the Storm Prediction Center as of the afternoon on Sunday, May 2.

The latest Day 2 Convective Outlook (Monday AM – Tuesday AM) puts all of NW Arkansas and the River Valley in a level 2/5 (slight) risk.

Looking at the individual threats, large hail and damaging straight-line winds are the primary threats.

Individual severe threats from the SPC Day 2 outlook as of Sunday, Mary 2 afternoon.

The hatched area on the large hail risk means there is a 10% or greater chance of hail over 2-inches (hen egg/lime size) in diameter within 25-miles of any point inside the area.

There is a low-medium risk of a couple of tornadoes as well.

Timing

A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout Monday and Monday night. A few rain showers will be possible during the midday hours on Monday, otherwise, we will see a mix of sun & clouds across the area. The amount of sun is important for instability!

Typically, the more sun received on days like Monday, the higher the chance for severe weather. Sunshine erodes what we call the “cap”, a layer of warm air above the surface that prevents thunderstorm growth.

The sun will heat the air near the surface until it is warm enough to break the cap. When this happens in a thunderstorm-producing environment, storms can develop quickly. There are other ways to break the cap, but sunshine is usually the main factor.

HRRR model run of precipitation and clouds on Monday, May 3 2021 and Tuesday, May 4 2021.

Models predict this happening near sunset and producing thunderstorms right after dinnertime Monday. They will continue into the early morning hours on Tuesday with a few showers possible after sunrise.

Stay Weather Aware!

We say it all the time, but be weather-aware Monday night. Watch the sky and have a plan in place should a severe weather warning be issued.

While severe weather significantly impacting any one person’s home is relatively low on even the severe weather days with the highest risk, please remain vigilant Monday evening. Watch the forecast for updates and stay on top of the situation throughout the evening.

Have at least 3 different ways to receive warnings (OUTDOOR SIRENS DO NOT COUNT).

Some examples to receive warning information include

  • NOAA weather radio
  • Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) system
  • NWA Weather Authority app (click to download for free)
  • watch KNWA/FOX24 for breaking weather information
  • Third-party subscription services (example: WeatherCall)
  • Your county/city emergency alert service (example: BCAlert for Benton County residents).

Finally, be sure to follow your NWA Weather Authority team on social media to receive the latest forecast information.

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